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Executive Summary As of 23 May '24, the Baltic Dry Index is testing a new support area on the uptrend line. There is a possibility of a trend reversal as BDI has been trending up for over a year now. A break of the uptrend will diminish the profitability of dry-bulking shipping stocks, making stocks in automobiles and construction companies less attractive. In conclusion, we recommend avoiding buying stocks positively correlated with the Baltic Dry Index such as Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. Why Should Investors And Traders Care About The Baltic Dry Index! The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a major leading economic indicator of the health of the global dry bulking shipping market; it tracks the cost of moving raw materials ― iron ore, coal, building materials, and grains across the globe. Combining iron ore and coal creates steel, a key metal in automobiles and durables goods production. The cost of renting these vessels to carry the raw materials previously mentioned depends on customer demand; therefore, a falling index reflects lower demand and a rising index represents higher demand. By the end of this investment report, investors and traders will be able to make an informed decision based on the current trend of the BDI. BDI Chart Analysis Key Points In the past five years, BDI has gone as low as 407, and as high as 5,526. Year-to-date, the Baltic Dry Index is down -13.8%; on a MoM and YoY basis, it is up 32% and down -4%, respectively. It peaked at 5,526 on 4 Oct '21. Its long-term support and resistance are around 500 and 3200, respectively. The Baltic Dry Index has traded above the 50-day moving average since Sep '23. The most recent long-term uptrend keeps finding higher support areas, but this time will likely differ. The Baltic Dry Index VS Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.NK Investment Analysis The demand for raw materials such as iron ore, grain, coal, and other building materials has increased since 12 Feb '23; however, this trend may reverse next month – Jun '24. Lower shipping demand for raw materials in automobile manufacturing and construction such as steel might negatively impact discretionary stocks. We recommend selling any shipping stocks exposed to daily fluctuations in the cost of renting dry-bulk ships. Genko Shipping & Trading Ltd. is up 33% year-to-date, and it's been uptrending since Nov '23; investors and traders should take their profits, sell covered calls, or wait for the next uptrend if not invested yet.

Executive Summary Since the beginning of Apr ‘24, crude oil has been declining towards $70 per barrel, a key support area. The positive correlation between the crude oil price and the US inflation rate indicates that crude will have to go below $70 for inflation to lower. On Sep ‘24, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its first interest since Mar ‘20; this rate cut expectation also implies that crude oil will be trading below $70 by Sep '24. In conclusion, we do not find it necessary to buy any utilities, staples, or energy ETFs right now; stay invested in the S&P 500 and lock in some high-yield savings accounts, 5% or higher, as they are less likely to remain above 5% in 2025. Why Investors And Traders Should Care About The WTI Crude! The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude is a major leading economic indicator of the health of the US economy. As one of the most traded commodities in the world, the price of crude oil can give investors valuable insights into consumer and business spending; crude oil can be refined into gasoline, petrol, diesel, and petrochemicals. Whenever crude oil price spikes the risk of an economic recession increases significantly. By the end of this investment report, investors and traders should be able to understand the impact of the crude oil price on the economy. Key Points In the past five years, crude oil has been as low as $16.94 and as high as $120.67. Year-to-date, crude oil is up 13.7% on an MoM and YoY basis it is down -3.4% and up 11.2%, respectively. It peaked at around $120 on 30 May '22. It has been now since Nov '22 that crude oil has failed to break above $90 or fall below $70, making those two possible resistance and support areas, respectively. Moreover, it has been moving above the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) since Q1 '21. Lastly, on Sep '22, the price of crude oil reversed to the downside, and it has been moving sideways ever since. Investment Analysis In most cases, the price of crude oil tends to spike into a recession and then fall during one; however, not all spikes lead to economic recessions, as in the 2022 case when the job market was healthy during a crude oil spike. Crude oil and inflation are positively correlated because businesses and consumers are the end users of crude oil refined products such as fuel and petrochemicals; in the past twelve months, inflation has slowed because crude oil has been relatively stable. If the trend is to continue but to the downside, transportation costs, energy bills, and petrochemical products will fall as well. With the US inflation rate at 3.4% and the interest rate at 5.50%, consumer spending will likely slow down. A slowdown in the US economy caused by higher interest rates from the Fed will make a recession an inevitable event. Our mid-term investment recommendation is to stay invested in the S&P 500, put your money into a high-yield savings account, and buy some treasury bonds if trading at a discount. Stay away from utilities, consumer staples, and energy stocks.

Executive Summary According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the first Fed rate cut is expected on 18 Sep '24. This implies that the yield curve will still be negative by then; in conclusion, investors should keep their money in the S&P 500 and high-yield savings accounts ― 5% or higher. Why Investors and Traders Should Care About the 10Y-3M Yield Curve! The yield curve is a leading economic indicator that helps investors and traders predict the future of interest rates, economic activity, and potential investment returns on different asset classes. Normally, investors want to see a positive yield curve on government bonds ― longer maturity bonds yielding higher rates than shorter maturity bonds; long-term bonds should be riskier than short-term bonds to compensate for the risk of not knowing what the future holds. When the long-term bond yield is lower than short-term bonds investors become wary of the long-term economic outlook. By the end of this report, investors and traders should be able to make an informed investment decision based on the shape of the yield curve. Key Points The current Yield Curve is -1.04%. The Yield curve, using the 10-Year Note and 3-Month Treasury, has been negative since 25 Oct '22. It hit as low as -1.89% on 1 Jun '23, this implies that the probability of a recession in 1H ‘25 is greater than 75%. Furthermore, year-to-date and 12 months ago, the yield curve was negative, -1.51 and -1.69, respectively. Using data from the late 1980s, early and mid-2000s, and late 2010s, the average time for the inverted yield curve has been seven months followed by an average recession of ten months which usually took place no more than six months after the inverted yield curve turned positive. The Longer the Yield Curve Inversion the Longer the Recession The 10Y-3M yield curve inverted on 25 Oct '22, which was 19 months ago; during the time, it hit its lowest level ever on record since 1980 — -1.89%. Fortunately, larger negative yields do not mean longer recessions; the time of the yield curve matters the most. The length of time of the negative yield causes a bigger impact on the economy once it turns positive. Inverted yield curves signal weaker short-term economic conditions ― higher inflation or unemployment rates. For the past 18 months, investors have been moving away from long-term into shorter-term bonds; inflation was one of the main factors of such an event, causing the Fed to start hiking interest rates in Q2 '22. At 3.4%, Inflation has slowed down, but the Fed is still keeping rates higher because inflation is above the 2% Fed target. Investment Analysis The first Fed rate cut will send a dovish signal to the bond and stock market implying a greater economic growth ahead; unfortunately, it will also trigger the yield curve normalization. Once the Yield curve turns positive it will take no more than six months for the economy to enter into a recession. Since the yield curve is still negative investors should stay away from bonds with maturities longer than five years and stay invested in the S&P 500; also, take advantage of the 5% plus high-yield savings accounts if you find bonds too boring.

Executive Summary In Q1 ‘24, the US Real GDP QoQ growth lowered to 1.6%. Demand for durable goods declined -1.20% while services surged 4%. Slower demand for goods contributed to the decline of the Output gap from 0.82% to 0.67%. If the Fed continues to see a declining output gap that could turn negative, interest cuts will soon occur. In conclusion, holding or buying the S&P 500 and avoiding the discretionary sector is our recommended investment strategy as, last quarter, the US GDP declined but did not turn negative. Why Investors and Traders Should Care About the US GDP! Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the best measure of a country's economic activity as it measures the total market value of all newly produced final goods and services in that country during a year. As the main leading economic indicator, GDP can help forecast companies' earnings and economic recessions. Remember that GDP does not record the informal sector (black market). This report breaks down GDP using the expenditure method which adds up all the domestic spending ― consumption, government expenditure, investments, and net export (export-import). This is just the first version (advance report) of the GDP; two more revisions are to be made ― preliminary and the final report. In conclusion, by the end of this report, investors and traders should have a clearer understanding of the current state of the US economy and where it might be heading next. Key Points In Q1 '24, US Real GDP was up 1.6%, QoQ, below the 2.5% consensus estimate; personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, and government consumption and gross investment were up 2.5%, 3.2%, and 1.2%, respectively. Consumption makes up 69% of the US Real GDP and its services, up 4% QoQ, were the main contributors to the overall personal consumption growth in Q1 '24. Residential investments had the most growth, 13.9%. Services Boost US Personal Consumption In Q1 '24, US personal consumption grew 2.5% QoQ. Durable goods declined -1.2% primarily due to a -$13.9B decline in motor vehicles and parts spending; motor vehicles and parts have lost over $32.7B in the last 12 months. 11.4% of total personal consumption goes into durable goods while 21.1% goes into nondurables. Nondurable goods stayed firm, driven by consumer spending on clothing and footwear, up $6.6B QoQ. Lastly, services saved consumer spending from a decline, growing 4% QoQ; household consumption expenditures (for services), health care, and financial services and insurance were the main drivers of services, contributing a combined $137.5B in Q1 '24. Services received 67.5% of consumer spending during the quarter. Residential Investments Saw Double Digits Growth in Q1 '24 US private domestic investment grew 3.2% in Q1 '24 with most of its fixed investment capital going towards residential and intellectual property products. QoQ, residential, and intellectual property products increased 13.9% and 5.4%, respectively; intellectual property was driven by software investments which saw a $20.2B increase. 22.7% of total fixed investments went into residential such as houses and apartments. Only 17.3% of the Total US Government Capital is Allocated to Gross Investments In Q1 '24, US government spending grew 1.2%, with most of its growth coming from state and local expenditures and investments ― 2%. State and local gross investment ― highway construction, public buildings, and military equipment ― grew $1.8B to $452B; on the other hand state and local consumption expenditures grew $10.3B to the massive $1,944B which includes national defense, public education, law enforcement, and public healthcare. In Q1 ‘24, the annualized US government spending was $3,899B of which only 17.3% went into gross investments at federal, state, and local levels. A -$846B Trade Deficit In Q1 '24, the US reported a negative net export of -$846B due to the 6.8% and 9% increase in imported goods and services, respectively. The US is a positive net seller of exported services, $290B, and a negative net seller of exported services at around -$1,136B. A Positive Output Gap In Q1 '24, the output lowered from 0.82% to 0.67%, representing a cooling off in a booming economy. Demand for services is still surging while it has slowed down for goods; this is important because consumption is 69% of the US GDP. Lastly, the Fed usually starts to cut interest rates in anticipation of a declining output gap turning toward negative. Investment Analysis The US GDP showed a strong demand for services, and a strong capital inflow for residential, and intellectual property products. The downtrend in motor vehicles and parts is a bearish signal for some motor vehicle stocks. Avoid discretionary stocks, and rotate to the S&P 500 and health care.

Executive Summary The United States Real and Nominal GDP per capita look better than ever, at $67,702 and $85,000, respectively. A more favorable environment for equity investors is expected in the mid-to-long-term horizon as a robust economy drives consumption thus boosting companies' earnings. We recommend staying invested in the S&P 500 as the US economy is the world's largest economy and 6th richest. Why Investors Should Pay Attention To This Coincident Indicator? While GDP is a leading economic indicator that measures the size of an economy, GDP per capita is a coincident indicator that represents how rich an economy is; that is, it measures how much the average citizen earns or contributes to the economy. The bigger the GDP per capita, the richer the people are on average. Generally, people living in countries with higher GDP per capita also have a higher standard of living. However, GDP per capita does not consider inequality, pollution, crime, and leisure time; the Gini coefficient and the Gross National Happiness (GNH) are the alternatives to measure some of the variables that the GDP per capita does not address such as equality, sustainable development, and work-life balance. By the end of this report, investors and traders should be able to make an educated long-term investment decision to improve their investment portfolio. Key Points In Q1 '24, Real GDP per capita increased by 0.3%, and 2.4% QoQ and YoY. The United States has the world’s sixth-largest Nominal GDP per capita; the leading five richest economies are Luxemburg, Ireland, Switzerland, Norway, and Singapore. The United States has a nominal GDP per capita of $85,000; advanced economies, the world, and emerging and developing economies have GDP per capita of $58,000, $14,000, and $7,000, respectively. Investment Analysis Looking at the trend of the US Real and Nominal GDP per capita, it is clear that no recession is occurring right now as GDP per capita usually lowers during such times. We recommend that investors stay invested in the S&P 500 because the United States citizens keep improving their standard of living which is a positive indicator of future companies’ earnings.

Executive Summary Although the US GDP deflator was 3.1% in the last quarter, it is still below the yield fixed-income dependents are receiving. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has set interest rates above 5%, and thanks to that commercial banks are offering higher yields for savings accounts — just above 4.5%. The 10-year US Treasury Bond is trading around $96 with a 4% coupon rate and a 4.46% yield to maturity. Buying some TLT around now is appropriate as yields and coupon rates are higher than usual; as the bond matures you will get a satisfactory capital gain since bond prices are much lower than the average, $100,   while offering higher coupons and yields than average. Also, keeping your money in a 4% or higher high-yield savings account would be another great investment decision. Why People Relying on Fixed-Income Should Care About This Economic Indicator! The GDP deflator is an inflation measure of all domestically produced goods and services, excluding imports. This coincident economic indicator helps investors and traders gauge how much inflation affects their investment returns. Fixed-income investors feel a greater impact than those investing in other assets such as equities or commodities. By the end of this report, investors and traders should be able to make an educated decision about their money allocation into bonds or high-yield savings accounts. Key Points In Q1 '24, GDP Deflator accelerated to 3.1%, slightly above the 3% consensus estimate. Just below 2.5% is the desired rate as it goes along with the Fed 2% inflation target; the GDP deflator is a few percentage points away from being considered stable. Investment Analysis The 3.1% increase of the US GDP deflator is the equivalent of a -3.1% decline in the overall purchasing power of the US dollar; therefore, the average consumer and those who depend on fixed income for a living are not getting the most out of their hard-earned money. Nonetheless, people holding cash without earning any interest on it are the ones having a bad time since the Fed interest rate is at 5.50%. As long as interest rates remain above the GDP deflator, people relying on fixed income will earn positive real returns on their bond portfolios or high-yield saving accounts.