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Executive Summary Copper had a similar uptrend at the beginning of 2021; copper is extremely bullish right now, implying the continuation of the current economic expansion. In conclusion, we recommend staying out of the housing and manufacturing stocks as copper has more downside than upside for the rest of 2024. Why Investor and Traders Should Care About this Leading Economic Indicator! Also referred to as Dr.Copper or red gold, copper is a major economic indicator of a country's financial health. Its unique physical properties make it the foundational metal of industrialized economies. As one of the most cost-effective electricity conductors, copper is highly correlated with the health of housing, manufacturing, and infrastructure spending. Since copper is a relatively stable commodity, its demand usually reflects a healthy economic activity ahead as people use it in plumbing, piping, fittings, tubing, wiring, roofing, flashing, electronics, industrial, automotive, and marine applications. By the end of this investment report, you should be able to make a sound investment decision to boost your portfolio performance. Copper Chart Analysis 1/2 Key Points 1/2 YTD and YoY, copper rose 3.6% and 8.1%, respectively. In the past five years, Copper has gone as low as $2.18/pound and as high as $5.05/pound; during the same period, there were two major long-term uptrends. The most recent long-term uptrend began in Jul '22 and was confirmed in Oct '23 when the long-term downtrend reversed to the upside; in addition, copper signaled a bullish alert on Feb '24 when its price broke above the 200-day Moving Average. Since Oct '20, copper has been above $3/pound, which is considered a high but healthy price for the metal. It became even more bullish when it broke above $4 on Mar ‘24. Copper Chart Analysis 2/2 Key Points 2/2 Despite being a relatively stable commodity, the economic demand for Copper has historically led to inflationary pressures in the U.S. as businesses pass on their copper-related costs to consumers. Therefore, when the Fed raises interest rates to stifle consumer demand for housing, automotive, electronics, and other consumer goods, copper inflates even more as the Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT) strengthens the US Dollar (USD). Since commodities are generally sold in USD, a strong USD inflates commodity prices, thus driving business input costs. Once consumer demand slows down and the job market starts to show cracks through the unemployment rate and jobless claims, the Fed pivots to Quantitative Easing (QE) to stimulate the economy; QE weakens the USD. The last unemployment (4.3%) report made it clear to the Fed that the QT has started to kick in and a pivot is imminent. As a result, a weaker demand for copper-related goods, followed by a weaker USD, will drive the price of copper down. Investment Analysis →Neutral (Sell) Copper is on a bullish trend (price above $3) that signals an economic expansion for the US economy, mainly in housing and manufacturing. However, copper has declined since hitting its all-time high ($5.05) in May '24. Copper bounced on a major support area ($4); further decline until the 200 MA is expected because of the MACD bearish crossover that occurred last month (June) and continues to diverge further. We recommend staying out of the manufacturing and housing stocks but staying invested in the S&P 500.

Executive Summary 2024 has been a good year for durable goods orders, as businesses show that through moving capital spending into durable goods orders. However, durable goods orders are still $17.6 billion away from their peak in Nov '23. The four-month streak may break in June because of the growth slow-down in May ― from 0.2% to 0.1%. Due to the weakness in month-over-month growth in durable goods orders, we will not risk buying any stocks positively correlated with durable goods orders until the next monthly report. You Should Care About This Leading Economic Indicator! Durable goods orders are a major leading economic indicator of the US economy's health; they give investors and traders insight into consumer demand through the eyes of businesses. Businesses usually place orders for new goods if they see demand for them. Moreover, durable goods orders foretell what companies are expecting in the future. Remember that consumption is about 69% of the US GDP, and one-third comes from goods. This investment report will help you get insight into the US economic prosperity through businesses' confidence to order durable goods. Durable Goods Orders Since 2019 Growth Drivers By Categories Key Points In May, US durable goods orders rose 0.1% and fell 1.5% MoM and YoY, respectively. It beat the consensus estimate (-0.5%). Durable goods orders are up 2.4% in 2024, currently at $283.1 billion from $276.5 billion in January.  Defense aircraft and parts rose the most (22.6%), making it the main driver of durable goods orders; durable goods orders excluding defense fell 0.2% in May. Other drivers were computers and electronic products, and transport equipment which grew in the low single digits, between 0.6 and 1.3%. Durable Goods Orders Tend to Fall During Recessions Durable Goods Orders During Recessions Durable goods orders usually fall during recessions as consumers pull back on consumption due to current and future employment concerns. Based on the latest report, there are no indications of a recession in the next six months as durable goods orders bounced back in February ‘24; however, if durable goods orders go below $276.5B in the next six months, the likelihood of a recession will skyrocket. Investment Analysis → Neutral(Hold) In the last twelve months, durable goods orders peaked in Nov '23 ($300.6B) and bottomed in Jan ‘24 ($276.5B), and it has been recovering since Feb '24. MoM growth, US durable goods orders look stable but weak, reflecting economic stability for the next three to five months. However, durable goods orders fell 1.5% compared to twelve months ago.

Executive Summary In May '24, new home sales were about 14.3% of the total houses sold in the United States. Compared to a month ago, new home sales showed negative growth in the Northeast, the South, the Midwest, and the West. Year-over-year, new home sales in the Midwest grew 13.3% while the rest of the regions were in double-digit declines. Since there is no clear trend for new home sales and interest rates are 5.50%, we do not feel the need to buy any homebuilder stocks or ETFs. You Should Care About This Leading Economic Indicator! New home sales are one of the major economic indicators of the health of the housing market, and they help investors gauge how the economy is doing. The demand for housing shows consumers' confidence in their future employment conditions through their willingness to make significant long-term purchases. The sale of new houses boosts economic activity as workers need to be hired; also, raw and other essential materials such as lumber, floor tiles, roofing materials, and electrical wiring, to name just a few, must be manufactured, transported, and warehoused before finally being used at the actual construction site. This report aims to analyze the attractiveness of the equity market ― stocks and ETFs ― for potential short- to mid-term equity positions. Key Points In May '24, new home sales came in 3% below the 636K consensus estimate. The 619K new homes sold represent a MoM and YoY decrease of 11.3% and 16.8%, respectively. New home sales haven't been this low (619K) since Nov '23 at 611K. 59.5% of New Home Demand Comes From the South In May, the median and average sale prices for new homes in the US were $417,400 and $520,000, respectively. Moreover, sellers listed 481K new homes for sale in May, representing 9.3 months of supply. The monthly supply of new home sales in the US is higher than usual, above the six-month benchmark; it peaked in July '22 at 10.6 and bottomed in May '23 at 6.9 monthly supply. The south was the most vital region, representing 59.5% of the total new home sales in May. Impact by Region In May, the Northeast saw a 43.8% decline in new home sales, and it declined the same percentage year-over-year; moreover, MoM, the Midwest, the South, and the West fell 8.6%, 12%, and 4.5%, respectively.  YoY. The Midwest had the best YoY growth, up 13.3%, while the rest of the regions fell in the lower double digits. Correlation Between US New Home Sales and the Monthly Supply History tells us that the monthly supply and sales of new homes in the United States are negatively correlated. If the monthly supply rises continuously, new home sales will likely move in the opposite direction. Since the 1980s, monthly supply and new home sales have usually signaled recessions as the supply tends to spike and the demand tends to drop before entering one. The last time it happened was in the first quarter of 2020. However, there are some exceptions; for instance, in the first quarter of 2022, the monthly supply of new homes spiked, and sales of new homes dropped significantly, but no recession took place. The same occurred during the second quarter of 2010. Therefore, investors should not have to worry about it for now. The Recession that Never Happened The first half of 2022 pointed to a possible recession ahead, as new home sales dropped sharply, just as they had during the previous seven recessions. However, no recession occurred thanks to a resilient job market; the US unemployment rate averaged 3.7% during that period. In addition, new homes for sale tend to decline during recessions as homebuilders become less optimistic about the future; therefore, if new houses sold and new houses for sale drop in tandem, a recession is very likely, otherwise recession probabilities diminish considerably. Investment Analysis → Neutral(Hold) New home sales for May were weaker than expected, representing a slowdown in demand in the housing market. Such a soft demand means the economy is cooling down amidst the current interest rate set by the Federal Reserve — above 5%. News that the monthly supply of new homes continues to trend up is a negative for the overall health of the housing market, for it shows that consumers are not going out there and buying those houses in supply. A 9.3 monthly supply of new homes in the United States means more people are selling new houses than buyers are looking for. Such a high supply gives power to buyers. However, there will be less future economic activity as a result of fewer houses getting built and buyers taking their time to buy new homes; such buyer behavior leads to a chain of events ― there will be fewer workers needed to be hired in terms of labor; commodities and raw materials wise, there will be a lower demand for lumber, floor tiles, roofing materials, and electrical wiring, to name just a few things, that must be manufactured, transported, and warehoused before finally being used at the actual construction site. In addition, there is no sign of recession based on this data since sales have been trendless for the past six months. In the meantime, keep an eye on Home Depot.

Executive Summary The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index declined in June to 100.4, slightly above the 100 consensus estimates. On the other hand, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index missed consensus estimates by 6.5 points, down for the third month in a row. Overall, consumers reported to be less optimistic about their current and future economic situations, with some thinking there is a 66% recession probability in the next twelve months. In conclusion, stay invested in the S&P 500, but do not add more to your current position. You Should Care About This Leading Economic Indicator! The Conference Board Consumer Confidence and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Indexes are the two primary surveys conducted in the United States to gauge consumers' psychology and opinions about the current and future economic situations ― financial prosperity, inflation, employment, etc.; these two surveys are so important for financial markets because optimistic consumers tend to spend more than fearful ones, and 69% of the US economic spending comes from consumers. By the end of this investment report, you will have developed enough understanding of the current market conditions, aiding you in making a sound investment decision in your portfolio. Chart Analysis Key Points In June, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CBCCI) came in slightly above the 100 consensus estimate; it peaked in Jan '24, at 110.9, and decreased just 0.89% in June. YTD and YoY, Consumer Confidence is down by 9.5% and 8.8%, respectively. On the other hand, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSI) came way below the 72.1 consensus estimate, at 65.6; it peaked in Mar '24, at 79.4, and decreased for the third time since its peak; even though YoY, the Michigan Sentiment is up 1.9%, on a YTD and MoM basis, it is down 17% and 5.1%, respectively. The CBCCI and the UMCSI are on a slow downtrend with a relatively stable CBCCI. Looking at the CBCCI present situation in June, 19.6% of consumers found current business conditions good, 17.7% thought otherwise, 38.1% found the labor market in good shape, and 14.1% found difficulties getting new jobs. However, consumers had less optimistic expectations for the next six months: 12.5% expect better business, while 16.7% expect the contrary. 12.6% of consumers expect greater job access, and a staggering 17.3% think otherwise. 15.2% see themselves earning more money, while 11.7% see the opposite. Unfortunately, consumers found their family's financial conditions less favorable in June than in May, and they think the current situation might improve less in the next six months. Also, consumers perceived a 66% recession probability in the next twelve months, by June 2025. Consumers in the June Michigan Sentiment survey reported concern about rising prices and lower purchasing power. Consumer Priorities In order of importance, consumers showed concern about food and grocery prices, the labor market, and the US political situation. Consumer See Economic Progress In the CBCCI June report, 48.4% of consumers expect higher stock prices in the next twelve months while 23.5% expect the opposite. Furthermore, 52.6% expect higher interest rates and a 66% recession probability during the same period. Consumer Confidence VS Recessions Usually, consumer confidence drops significantly during recessions, as the 2007 and 2020 cases. Consumer Sentiment VS Unemployment Rate It takes hikes in the unemployment rate for a recession to occur; the unemployment rate is a precise number while consumer sentiment is a survey. A troubled job market will be reflected in the consumer sentiment surveys, thus as the unemployment rate rises consumer sentiment will move in the opposite direction. Investment Analysis → Neutral (Hold) The Conference Board Consumer Confidence and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment June survey show consumers with lower confidence in their financial conditions, which implies a slower spending rate in the short term; they will still spend but more consciously. In the past six months, the CBCCI and the S&P 500 showed a moderate negative correlation, at -0.59, and no correlation with inflation, at 0.03. Such correlations signal a stock market more focused on corporate profit than consumers' feelings. On the other hand, in the past six months, the UMCSI showed a strong negative correlation with the S&P 500 and inflation, at -0.77 and -70, respectively. Such correlations signal a consumer base paying less attention to the stock market while still worried about living costs. Lastly, the S&P 500 and inflation showed a moderate positive correlation of 0.50, implying a stock market that is slowly getting less fearful about the current inflation levels. Since the decline in consumer sentiment from both surveys has not been astonishing, we recommend staying invested in the S&P 500 but not adding to it yet.

Executive Summary In May '24, the PCB book-to-bill ratio showed an unfavorable reading as demand and sales declined while the EMS ratio showed a favorable reading as sales increased. PCB demand fell below supply, leading to excess capacity; on the other hand, EMS demand remained above supply, leading to no excess capacity; EMS orders are higher than what the industry can fulfill, but the opposite is true for PCB orders. That indicates an economy that is currently cooling down. In conclusion, considering the slowdown might be seasonal, you should either hold or avoid semiconductors, tech stocks, or ETFs. You Should Care About This Leading Indicator! The book-to-bill ratio is a major leading economic indicator of the health of the semiconductor business. The US heavily relies on semiconductors for everyday functions, financial and technological success, and national security. This ratio can help you understand the economy’s overall health. Moreover, semiconductors are fundamental building blocks of modern electronics, and they are used across different industries ― consumer electronics, computers, telecommunications, the automotive industry, industrial automation, medical devices, and aerospace and defense. This report analyzes the semiconductor business’s current condition for potential short- to mid-term equity positions ― stocks and ETFs. A few distinctions to remember when reading this report ― Printed Circuit Boards (PCB) are physical components. At the same time, Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) is a service that involves various electronic manufacturing processes. PCB production is just one step within the broader service offered by EMS companies, and PCBs can be designed and manufactured for multiple purposes. EMS services are customized based on a client's specific electronic device requirements. PCB Book-to-Bill Ratio Drops Below 1! Key Points The North American Printed Circuit Board (PCB) book-to-bill ratio decreased from 1.06 to 0.95 in May, leading to a two-month downtrend. Looking at PCB, the book-to-bill ratio was down 10.4% and up 6.7% MoM and YoY, respectively. MoM and YoY, PCB bookings were down 2.7% and 6.4%, respectively, and its shipments were down 16.5% and 6.8%. EMS Book-to-Bill Ratio Slows Down For The First Time In 2024! Key Points The North American Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) book-to-bill ratio decreased in May from 1.42 to 1.36, breaking the uptrend that began in Jan '24. MoM and YoY, the EMS book-to-bill ratio was down 4.2% and up 12.4%, respectively. Looking at EMS, bookings were down 16.2% and up 2.6%, MoM and YoY, respectively, and its shipments were up 3.7% and 5%. A Healthy Cyclicality Key Points On a year-over-year basis, PCB bookings have been more volatile than billings/shipments, bringing a healthy cyclicality to both. Investment Analysis → Hold (Neutral) Looking at the North American PCB and EMS book-to-bill ratios trend, the chip manufacturing sector slowed down in May, reflecting some economic headwinds. The negative 2.7% MoM growth in PCB bookings drove down the PCB book-to-bill ratio from 1.06 to 0.95; MoM PCB billings/shipments declined even faster ― 16.5%. On the other hand, the 16.2% MoM decrease in EMS bookings hindered the PCB book-to-bill ratio from 1.42 to 1.36; MoM EMS billings/shipments increased by 3.7%. YoY, the PCB and EMS book-to-bill ratios increased by 6.7% and 12.4%, respectively; the YoY increase in the EMS ratio shows that supply distribution efficiency has not improved compared to a year ago, leading to suppliers getting products to customers much slower ― order backlog. An order backlog is good because the demand exceeds the available supply. However, despite the YoY increase in the PCB ratio, its current supply is ahead of demand. The current PCB book-to-bill ratio is below 1, representing an economy that is cooling down; on the other hand, the EMS one is above 1, representing an economy that is still expanding. Therefore, once again, we can conclude that the chip manufacturing sector has slowed down.

Executive Summary The spreads on Moody's Seasoned Aaa and Baa Corporate Bond Yields Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury have slowly narrowed in the last twelve and six months, representing an economy with greater capital flow and investor optimism. In conclusion, you should stay invested in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Why You Should Care About Bond Credit Spreads! Credit spread is the risk structure of interest rates as it helps investors and traders gauge investment risks. The widening and narrowing of credit spreads reflects the market sentiment on risk management. For this investment report, you will see the credit spread of corporate bonds relative to that of the U.S. government, and that will give you a clue about the current market sentiment. Simply put, in this case, credit spread is the difference in interest rate between two different bonds. An Aaa bond rating represents maximum safety, whereas a Baa one represents lower medium safety. Historical Chart Analysis Key Points In the past twelve months, Aaa and Baa’s spreads have narrowed by 0.21% and 0.64% respectively. The spread on Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity remained unchanged, MoM, and decreased by 0.04% and 0.02% points, compared to six months ago and to the beginning of the year, respectively. The spread on Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity increased by 0.02% points; however, in the past six months and YTD, the same spread has narrowed by 0.22% and 0.16% points, respectively. Investment Analysis Based on the narrowing of the credit spreads, the US market does not see a troubled economy; in fact, the market expects the economy to grow at a steady pace in Q3. Credit spreads have narrowed since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 is up 15% during the same period; such returns represent great capital flow through the economy. In conclusion, invest in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.

Executive Summary U.S. total vehicle sales showed little growth in May, up 0.76%, beating the 15.80M consensus estimate. Consumers have shown resiliency since January 2023, as total vehicle sales have shown stability during such a period. Trucks and SUVs were the best-selling body types. In conclusion, stay invested in the S&P 500 and hold some discretionary stocks in the car sector. Why You Should Care About This Leading to Coincident Economic Indicator! Automobile sales are a significant economic indicator of the overall health of the US economy, giving us insights into consumer spending on a major durable good — vehicles —  and the manufacturing sector's health. It takes steel sheets for body panels, paint, glass for windshields and lights, copper for electrical wiring, rubber for tires, plastic, fabric, and possibly leather for interiors to make vehicles. Vehicle sales tend to drop into economic recessions and lag or coincide during recoveries. Sometimes, the economy might still be in recession, but car sales start to rise in response to lower Fed interest rates, which translates into lower interest payments on car loans; such consumer behavior helps anticipate economic recoveries. By the end of this investment report, you should know which stocks to buy and avoid. Chart Analysis Key Points U.S. total vehicle sales rose 0.76% in May. Total vehicle sales have stabilized since February '23, averaging 15.51M. YoY, total vehicle sales increased by 5.30%. May sales were 15.90M, 0.10M above the consensus. May's top 10 best-selling models were Ford F-Series, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Tesla Model Y, Ram Ram Pickup, GMC Sierra, Toyota Camry, Honda Civic, and Chevrolet Equinox. The average price of the top 10 best-selling models was $32,780, with the Honda Civic and Tesla Model Y having the cheapest and most expensive models, $22,695 and $51,990, respectively. Honda Civic had the highest YoY sales growth, followed by Toyota RAV4, at 48.9% and 24.7%, respectively. On the other hand, in May,  Ram Ram Pickup had the highest YoY decline in growth, at -24.8%, while being the number six best-selling model. In the past twelve months, total vehicle sales bottomed on January 2024 at 14.92M and peaked on December 2023 at 16.12M. Historical Chart Analysis History shows that a decline in total vehicle sales alone will not cause a recession; total vehicle sales need to fall as unemployment rises. So far, it does not look like we are in a recession. Investment Analysis Overall, vehicle sales were slightly more robust in 1H'24 than in 1H'23, thus highlighting healthier consumers. Consumers are still not as eager to buy vehicles as in 1Q'20, pre-pandemic, and 1Q'21, during the pandemic stimulus checks; however, they are still resilient. Consumers opted for cheaper durable goods in May: the $22,695 Honda Civic and the $26,695 Chevrolet Equinox. The stability in new vehicle sales means that the US manufacturing sectors reliant on car production are farther from being in trouble. The stability in sales also means that US consumers are not too worried about their current employment situation. Higher interest rates on car loan payments make buyers move away from expensive options, thus reflecting the slow growth for the most expensive car models. In conclusion, stay invested in the S&P 500 and hold, but do not add more discretionary stocks that are part of the car sector

Executive Summary The US ISM Manufacturing PMI index has fallen below consensus estimates for the second month straight, leading to a slight increase in recession risk for the last two months. Despite a contracting Manufacturing PMI, the overall economy is still growing but at a slower rate. In conclusion, you should stay invested in the S&P 500. Why You Should Care About This Leading Economic Indicator! The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Survey, formally known as the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), is a major economic indicator representing the health of the US economy through the manufacturing sector. The ISM surveys four hundred companies in twenty major industries about new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, inventories, customers' inventories, prices of materials, backlog of orders, imports, and exports; from all that data, it creates a Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), the ISM survey’s headline figure. The purchasing and supply managers at these four hundred companies share their thoughts on the current and future state of supply and demand for their products. By the end of this investment report, you will know whether the US economy is contracting or growing and how to make an investment decision based on it. Key Points The Manufacturing PMI was down 0.5% points in May ― 48.7%; it went below 50 in April, at 49.2%, representing a two-month contraction. Although at a slow rate, the overall economy is still growing as the Manufacturing PMI has been above 42.5% for over a year and has been up 1.1% points since May '23. Demand slowed down due to the contractions of new orders and backlog of orders. The 2.5% point increase in employment offset the 1.1% point decline in production, leading to a balanced output. Input was stable as supplier deliveries remained unchanged, while imports and prices remained at 57% and 51.1% in expansion territories. Significant changes occurred in new orders, employment, prices, backlog of orders, and net export orders, impacting the overall Manufacturing PMI. New orders were down 3.7% points ― 45.4% ― a decline that began in April '24. The drivers of such a decline were wood products, textile mills, nonmetallic mineral products, transportation equipment, electrical equipment, appliances & components, fabricated metal products, food, beverage & tobacco products, and machinery. Employment was up 2.5% points ― 51.1% ― the first expansion after six consecutive contractions. Seven of the eighteen manufacturing industries drove employment growth ― printing & related support activities, petroleum & coal products, nonmetallic mineral products, food, beverage & tobacco products, transportation equipment, primary metals, and chemical products. Prices decreased by 3.9% points to 57%; twelve industries reported paying higher prices for raw materials ― primary metals, textile mills, paper products, printing & related support activities, electrical equipment, appliances & components, plastics & rubber products, machinery, chemical products, computer & electronic products, miscellaneous manufacturing, food, beverage & tobacco products, and fabricated metal products ― contributing to the index decline. In May, the backlog of orders decreased by 3% points to 42.4%, extending to a twenty-month contraction trend. Lower demand in nine out of the eighteen manufacturing industries was the main driver of the price decline; those industries were the following: wood products, electrical equipment, appliances & components, computer & electronic products, machinery, transportation equipment, furniture & related products, food, beverage & tobacco products, miscellaneous manufacturing, and fabricated Metal Products. In May, net export orders reentered the expansion territory, 50.6%, after a -2.6% point decline in April. Such a boost was driven by Wood products, chemical products, food, beverage & tobacco products, and computer & electronic products, as overseas customers continue to enjoy American products. Overall, the following industries grew in May ― printing & related support activities, petroleum & coal products, paper products, textile mills, primary metals, fabricated metal products, and chemical products. On the other hand, the following industries contracted in May ― wood products, plastics & rubber products, machinery, computer & electronic products, furniture & related products, transportation equipment, and food, beverage & tobacco products. Historical chart Analysis Investment Analysis Overall, the Manufacturing PMI is contracting, albeit a growing economy. New orders are weak and contracting, while employment is expanding and growing. Recession risk have increased in the last two months because the Manufacturing PMI moved below 50%. It went from 50.3% in March to 49.2% and 48.7% in April and May, respectively. We recommend staying invested in the S&P 500.

Executive Summary In the last five weeks, from May 1st to 30th, inventory levels increased twice and decreased thrice weekly. However, those decreases were insufficient to offset the current 1.064M inventory surplus. Such an inventory surplus reflects the slow crude oil price decline since peaking on April 1st. Crude oil demand looks weak, decreasing producers' profitability and stabilizing consumer prices. In conclusion, stay invested in the S&P 500 and avoid energy and utilities stocks. Why You Should Care About This Leading Economic Indicator! Crude oil inventory level is a significant leading economic indicator of the health of the US economy. The oil inventory level is a good barometer of economic health because most consumed services and products are oil-derived ―  gasoline, diesel fuel, residual fuel (tankers), jet fuel, and plastics (petrochemicals). By the end of this investment report, you should understand the impact of crude oil inventory levels on your investment portfolio. Chart Analysis Key Points Crude oil inventories were down -327.7 %, -157.2 %, and 66.6%, respectively, week over week, month over month, and year over year. It came in at -4.156M, beating the -1.600M consensus estimates. In the past 30 days, crude oil inventories averaged 0.213M barrels daily. After adding up all the weekly crude oil inventories from the past twelve months, there was a -.473M oil shortage; however, in the past 6 and 3 months, inventory surpluses stood at 5.025M and 7.526M, respectively. There was also an outstanding surplus of 1.064M in the past 30 days. Investment Analysis The -4.156M in oil inventories in the last week of May implies that the US economy showed good industrial production, with factories and utilities using energy, people driving to work, flying, and boating in the last week of May, and overall consumption was slower. If supply continues to exceed demand, we see lower oil prices in the next three months, impacting oil producers' profitability to the downside; this could improve consumer spending on transportation, heating, and other goods. We recommend staying in the S&P 500 while avoiding energy and utilities stocks.

Executive Summary The May misery index report showed a slight improvement in April ― down -0.1%. While it has risen 6.9% in 2024, it has dropped -12.8% in the past twelve months. The inflation rate has been the main driver of a declining misery index in the last twelve months. In conclusion, stay invested in the S&P 500. Why Investors and Traders Should Care About this Simplistic Economic Indicator! The misery index is a simplistic coincident-to-leading economic indicator of job market health and living costs. It combines both to gauge consumer satisfaction with the economy. This economic indicator helps investors make smarter capital allocations as a high or low misery index indicates less or more consumption ahead; thankfully, the impact of the misery index is short-term, so investors should never use it for long-term investment decisions. It also represents how well the Federal Reserve (Fed) is doing, for the Fed has a dual mandate ― full employment and stable prices. By the end of this investment report, you should have a clear picture of the current state of the economy from the standpoint of the misery index. Misery Index Chart Analysis Key Points The misery index was 7.3% in April, a -0.1% decrease from the previous month. YTD and YoY, the misery index increased 6.9%, and decreased 12.8%, respectively. Usually, the misery index rises higher leading to a recession, and depending on the cause ― higher inflation and unemployment, or both ―  the Fed will react accordingly. The first Fed hike in Mar '22 was in response to the rising misery index that began in Mar '21; inflation was driving the misery index higher because unemployment was already trending down. The misery index started to rise when unemployment was 6% and inflation was 1.6%. The Fed began to raise interest rates when the unemployment and inflation rates were at 3.6% and 6.5%, respectively. Investment Analysis In aggregate, the job market and the prices of goods and services are slightly better than a month ago but significantly better than twelve months ago. This implies that the Fed is doing a great job of stabilizing prices. The latest unemployment and inflation reports were 3.9% and 3.6%, respectively. Therefore, the Fed must fix one of its dual mandates ― inflation. Once inflation moves closer to the target rate of 2%, the Fed dual mandate will have been completed. Based on the current misery index of 7.3%, we recommend staying invested in the S&P 500.

Executive Summary The constant downtrend in the US personal savings rate implies lower capital available for investments somewhere down the line, and a booming economy in the near term. Consumers are optimistic about their current financial condition. In conclusion, stay invested in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, but stay away from defensive, utilities, and staples stocks; additionally, buy some consumer-driven stocks. Why Should Investors and Traders Care About This Coincident Indicator! The personal savings report is a coincident economic indicator that monitors how much consumers are left with after all expenses such as taxes and personal expenditures. Disposable income and personal outlays are the key drivers of personal savings rate; disposable income is consumers' income after taxes, and personal outlays are what consumers choose to spend on with their disposable income. A country's domestic savings rate reflects its ability to fund its investments without international funding; therefore, the higher the domestic savings rate the higher the capital available for investment in the economy. The direction of the savings rate reflects consumers’ confidence about their current to near-term financial conditions. By the end of this investment report, investors and traders should be able to make an informed investment decision to improve their investment portfolio. Key Points US personal savings rate just hit its lowest rate since Oct '22 ― 3%. In Mar '24, the US personal savings rate was 3.2%, just a few percentages lower than the previous month ― 3.6%. Personal outlays grew faster than disposable income in Jan, Feb, and Mar '24. Twelve months ago, the US personal savings was 5.2%. The downtrend in the US personal savings rate began in May '23. Investment Analysis In March, US consumers spent faster than they earned causing a decline in the savings rate; this implies that consumers are somewhat optimistic about their current and near-term personal finances. Such a rapid pace in spending is boosting short-term economic growth, contributing to the expenditures of goods and services which comprise 69% of the US GDP. On the other hand, this also means less capital available for businesses to invest in expansion, innovation, and job creation, potentially leading to an economic slowdown somewhere along the way. There is no reason to worry about a recession right now as history shows that the unemployment rate needs to tick higher to trigger a recession, a hike in the savings rate alone will not cause one. In conclusion, we recommend taking advantage of consumer-driven stocks and staying invested in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.

Executive Summary In March, the personal income and outlays report showed faster growth in outlays compared to income, 0.9%, and 0.5%, respectively. Durable goods expenditure continued to grow despite the negative trend in used autos while unemployment insurance remained unchanged. In conclusion, hold your healthcare stocks, stay away from stocks in the used car industry but stay invested in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Why Should Investors and Traders Care About This Coincident Economic Indicator! The personal income and outlays report is a coincident indicator that looks at a country’s economic health through personal income from wages, salaries, investments, and government benefits and expenditures from disposable income. Strong income is a great sign of economic growth while a declining one is not. Disposable income is the remainder of wages and salaries after taxes and other required payments. By the end of this investment report, you will know enough to make an informed investment decision based on the current personal income and outlays report. Personal Income Key Points Personal income up-trended on all major time-frames; year-to-date, MoM, and YoY, it was up 0.8%, 0.5%, and 4.7%, respectively. Wages and salaries from the government grew faster than those from private industries on a YoY basis,  8,5% and 5.5%, respectively. Personal current transfer receipts were up 3.1% YoY; MoM, unemployment insurance remained unchanged at $22.9B. YoY and MoM, Income from personal current taxes increased by 0.6% and 8.8%, respectively. Disposable income was 87% of total personal income; YoY, disposable income grew 4.1%. Personal Outlays Key Points Now let's take a deeper look at the current consumer trends based on the personal consumption expenditure report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Respectively, goods and services comprised 33% and 66% of total personal consumption expenditure. MoM goods grew 1.3% while Services only grew 0.6%. Under goods, durable goods and nondurables comprised 35% and 65% of total goods, respectively. Motor vehicles and parts saw an uptrend in new motor vehicles while the downtrend in used autos continued since Apr '23. Despite being up by 0.3% on a MoM basis, motor vehicles and parts were down -2.9% YoY. On the other hand, MoM, Ytd, and YoY used autos were down -2.1%, -3.1%, and -14%, respectively. Ytd and MoM, furnishings and durable household equipment were up 1.2% and 1%, respectively. Ytd and MoM, recreational goods and vehicles grew 3% and 1.6%, respectively. Services saw the biggest MoM growth on financial, recreational, and healthcare services, up 1.3%, 1%, and 0.7%, respectively. Investment Analysis Based on the latest personal income and outlays report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal income is steadily growing, representing a growing economy. Personal consumption expenditures on durable goods increased $34B in Mar '24, implying a resilient consumer base. Unemployment insurance is stable, implying little economic hardship for the American people. In conclusion, we recommend staying out of the used car industry, holding some healthcare stocks, and staying invested in the S&P500 and NASDAQ 100. In addition, there is no need to buy defensive, or utility stocks as personal consumption expenditure is still growing for durable goods.